BIA Advisory issued a recent analysis looking at retransmission consent revenues and local television. In 2023, local stations are expected to receive $15.1 billion in retransmission consent fees. However, cord cutting and new online services may be changing this amount in the future. BIA noted:
"Looking ahead beyond 2023, the local TV industry has come to rely on these distribution revenues, but the dynamics are in flux. BIA’s calculation and forecasts of retransmission fees are based on the overall and expected growth in:
Audience ratings
Television households
Cable penetration rates
Fees local stations are receiving from cable and satellite delivery systems.
Fees local stations are paying parent networks for their share of these revenues.
Amounts received by non-top four affiliates (CW, MY, and Univision).
In a world with growing segments of homes that are cord-cutters and cord-nevers with a transition to CTV/OTT streaming video services, the economics of retransmission consent are changing as MVPDs see video subscriber losses along with the associated revenues from which distribution fees can be paid."
You can see BIA’s analysis here.